Water is moist, grass is inexperienced, Apple is the world’s primary smartphone vendor through the vacation season, and Samsung leads the identical world hierarchy firstly of the 12 months. The latter two was among the many only a few certainties of an in any other case risky cellular {industry}, however after looking on the
newest Counterpoint Analysis report, you would possibly begin to query nature’s immovable truths as properly.
Possibly water can sometimes be dry too if
Apple has managed to eclipse its arch-rival in worldwide smartphone gross sales between January and March 2025. That is the primary Q1 available in the market’s historical past when that is occurred, thoughts you, and it is an achievement made that rather more exceptional by the general surge in demand in comparison with the opening quarter of final 12 months.
Wait, so is the iPhone 16e extra standard than the Galaxy S25 Extremely?
Not essentially. That is as a result of each Apple and Samsung offered many various fashions world wide in Q1 2025, and there is clearly an excellent probability the 2024-released
iPhone 16, 16 Plus, 16 Professional, and
16 Professional Max every made their very own essential contribution to their producer’s dominant 19 % market share.
Equally, the
Galaxy S25 Extremely can’t solely be blamed for Samsung’s decline from a 21 % slice of the pie in Q1 2023 to twenty % this time final 12 months to 18 % now. And the identical goes for the “vanilla”
Galaxy S25 and the
S25 Plus.
The Galaxy S25 household is probably not fairly as standard as Samsung anticipated. | Picture Credit score — PhoneArena
Nonetheless, it is fairly clear that the S25 household hasn’t set the world on fireplace, and it is even clearer that the
iPhone 16e is a success. Apparently, Apple’s year-opening numbers both stayed flat or went down in key markets just like the US, Europe, and China whereas rising by double digits in Japan, India, Center East and Africa, and Southeast Asia.
What do (most of) the areas within the second class have in widespread? That is proper, they’re usually dominated by budget-friendly gadgets… like Samsung’s Galaxy A roster. As soon as once more, it is not fully clear simply but if the
iPhone 16e will in the end show extra profitable than the
Galaxy A36 or
Galaxy A56, but it surely positive would have helped Samsung if its newest Android mid-rangers had been launched previous to their largest rival.
Be careful for Vivo! And Xiaomi! And Motorola!
With Apple’s gross sales figures up by 4 % between Q1 2024 and Q1 2025 and
Samsung down by 5, you in all probability will not be shocked to listen to that a couple of completely different manufacturers outperformed the 2 {industry} heavyweights by way of their year-on-year progress.
In third place, Xiaomi gained 5 % in shipments and boosted its market share from 13 % (and 12 % in Q1 2023) to 14 %, whereas Vivo managed to commerce locations with sister model Oppo due to an industry-leading soar in volumes of 6 %.
Xiaomi will in all probability not catch as much as Samsung anytime quickly, however its regular progress continues to be fairly exceptional.
6 % can also be the newest quarterly development of the “others” class, the place Honor, Huawei, and Motorola are apparently shining brighter than the remainder of the market underdogs. Huawei, as you would possibly anticipate, continues to rely totally on China, the place it reigned supreme amongst all distributors through the first 90 days of 2025, whereas Honor and Motorola curiously “confirmed development in a number of markets.”
These markets aren’t named, however in Motorola’s case, I might anticipate to see each the US and a number of other European nations on such an inventory, confirming the corporate’s sluggish however regular and well-deserved rise to being one of many largest risks to Apple and Samsung’s world duopoly.
As for the smartphone market on the entire, I am unhappy to report that Counterpoint analysts anticipate this small Q1 development of three % to be adopted by declines precipitated primarily by “rising financial uncertainties” related to, you guessed it, Trump’s tariffs.
