Legacy Automakers’ Historical past of Gradual-Strolling, Their “Me Too” Second, & What Subsequent?

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Now we have numerous nice feedback on articles right here on CleanTechnica every single day. Nevertheless, typically a remark jumps out to me as one which needs to be an article itself. The following remark underneath an article I wrote on Friday is a type of:

“For years, legacy automakers actively tried to place the kibosh on EVs, and so they practically succeeded. As a substitute of embracing EVs, they did every part they may to make sure that ICE vehicles remained the dominant type of transportation. It’s not a coincidence that in August of 2018, the brief steadiness on TSLA was simply over $13bn, one of many largest brief positions in historical past. By the top of 2018, TSLA was on a skyward trajectory and gaining steam. It took a full 12 months for automakers like gm to appreciate that they’d squandered alternatives to be leaders within the EV market, in order that they did the one factor they may on the time… leap on the ‘Me Too’ wagon. The picture of Arnold Horshack franticly waving his hand in Mr. Kotter’s class involves thoughts. In 2020, gm had promised 20 new electrical automobiles by 2023, backed by press releases, which is one thing that many readers on this website give her and gm a cross on.”

Certainly — there are some superb factors right here. That is principally the sequence of key factors we heard from legacy automakers within the US over the previous 15 years:

• Electrical vehicles are impractical and can by no means be greater than a sliver of the auto market. (In the meantime, visionaries — a few of our readers included — and early EV leaders like Tesla lengthy predicted EVs would take over the market.)
• Electrical vehicles are too costly and the batteries usually are not ok for the mass market. We’ll want a breakthrough in solid-state batteries for EVs to change into in style.
• EV charging isn’t sufficient, so individuals can’t depend on EVs. (Tesla, in fact, constructed out the Supercharging community, fixing this challenge for the small proportion of journeys which can be lengthy distance and for patrons who don’t have residence or office charging.)
• EVs are getting longer vary and extra in style, however they’re nonetheless too costly.
• Oh, Tesla’s gross sales soared and its inventory priced shot by way of the higher ambiance? Oh, yeah, we’re 100% going to paved the way on EVs, too!
• We’re so going to destroy Norway in the case of EVs. [Side note: Still don’t understand what that was supposed to mean.]
• (Oh, crap, our inventory value didn’t jack up from these bulletins.)
• (Tesla’s gross sales surge is lastly dying off and so they’re stagnating or dropping?! Sure, now could be our second!)
• Properly, sadly, individuals simply don’t need EVs as a lot as we thought and we’re going to reduce our electrical car plans (and advertising and marketing).

And don’t even get me began in regards to the hydrogen hype.

The purpose is that there are numerous within the auto business, the oil business, and the laggard business who’ve by no means wished a fast transition to electrical automobiles (or any transition to electrical automobiles), who felt dragged alongside by the passion for EVs and progress in EV gross sales for some time, and who now wish to sluggish us down and drag us again once more.

I believe that Tesla remains to be vital to driving the business ahead and pushing different automakers to impress quicker, particularly so long as Chinese language EVs are all however banned within the US. It’s due to this fact all of the extra annoying and distressing that Elon Musk has been throwing the Tesla model within the mud as a lot as he has, whereas additionally spreading nonsensical misinformation about local weather change. The one plus aspect I see right here is that if lots of people who would have purchased Teslas as a substitute select to purchase different manufacturers’ EVs, that might encourage them to supply and promote extra EVs. Perhaps.

Returning to that bullet record, what’s subsequent? What are legacy automakers’ subsequent strikes going to be? I, someway, haven’t truly thought of this an excessive amount of, and I don’t know. Will they revive a “we’re EV leaders!” perspective and advertising and marketing marketing campaign once more? Will they largely ignore EVs and produce and promote comparatively few fashions for the subsequent a number of months or years? Will any of them attempt to stand properly above the gang and go 100% electrical by the subsequent Olympics? Will they watch their total gross sales shrink increasingly more as they change into much less aggressive in additional markets around the globe (as has been taking place in China)? What are your ideas on this?